Let me say again, the Church has never been stronger. Whatever the exact numbers, its hard to see a situation where Africa does not become a significant part of church culture and institutions in the long run., (Michelle Faye | FX) Gil Birmingham as Bill Taba and Andrew Garfield as Jeb Pyre in "Under the Banner of Heaven. This reflected more than a 4% growth rate. The Utah-based faith saw its membership in California fall by nearly 3% in the past two years. Lets examine differences in growth. (The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints) The Public Religion Research Institute has conducted surveys of more than 500,000 Americans over the past eight years and asked people what religion they identify as. Most, Riess says, just stop showing up and quietly distance themselves from the faith. These were the top four reasons for leaving the LDS Church: "I studied church history and lost my belief" (39% primary factor, 81% moderate to strong factor); "I lost faith in Joseph Smith" (39% primary, 84% mod-strong); "I ceased to believe in the church's doctrine/theology" (38% primary, 87% mod-strong); There are two primary ways for religions to shrink. By 2000, the number dropped to 2.48%. All rights reserved. Drawing on the National Study of Youth and Religion, a longitudinal study of the same several thousand Americans who were teenagers in 2002-2003 through their 20s a decade later, Back-Pocket God says that overall, 61% of people who were LDS during Wave 1 of the study still had that identity by Wave 4 a decade later. Even though the actual numbers are usednot the revised numbers with the 3% growth added on each yearthe number of baptized converts would have been double during the years 2017-2019! . Utah membership is growing more consistently and linearly, as is the membership in Idaho and Arizona, while some other nearby states (California, Colorado, Wyoming) have seen more stagnant membership rates. Whatever name you give it, that group has been growing. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has never been stronger. Exmormons are told to leave quietly with their tails between their legs. Creative Commons photo. John and Carah discuss information received from a stake president currently serving along the Wasatch Front. You've read 0 of 5 of todays most popular posts. deductible, Report a missed paper by emailingsubscribe@sltrib.comor calling801-237-2900, For e-edition questions or comments, contact customer support801-237-2900or emailsubscribe@sltrib.com. . But in our current religious climate, its often not enough. Catholics no longer constitute a majority of the U.S. Hispanic population. Yet local leaders were also given direction to divide mens church services into more than one group as required by local activity levels. In the below graph, when there is a larger gap between reports than one year, I calculate the annualized compound growth year to year the goal is to compare apples to apples as much as possible. In that context, 61% or 57% doesnt seem that bad. Old Man says: October 8, 2021 at 9:11 am. But that analysis also hides some interesting trends from state to state. Then-Apostle (now President) Russell M. Nelson claimed in January 2016 that the policy was a revelation from God. Source This decision created a firestorm and a mass exodus took place during the next few years. But by holding the line, you become a museum piece at a certain point. Can we decipher more trends around this data? She tweets about the latest science and industry news @EmaPen. Quitmormon. A lack of diversity in the churchs highest leadership, as many observe the lack of minorities in the ranks of the general authorities. A total of 126,000 new members were baptized in 2020, down from 249,000 in 2019, which is close to a 50% drop. Its not even the fault of the young people who leave, though it may seem like they made this choice all on their own. The largest percentage winners were South Dakota (up 6.48%), Arkansas (plus 5.32%) and Tennessee (up 4.79%). This returned missionary also explained, Though my mother was LDS and I was blessed in the church I wasnt baptized until I was 10. There are not a lot of somewhat Mormon people.. Many have sought to attribute the churchs attrition to controversial issues such as the churchs stances on womens rights, same-sex attraction, how it handles trickier aspects of its own history, and even how it manages its finances. At the time Stark spoke in 1998, the church was growing by more than a rate of 4% a year, which should be considered an amazing feat! And when they leave, they are less inclined to go quietly. There has been a movement led by many feminists that may cause some leaders toward a politically correct decision. There is a slow, slow move toward decentralization in decision-making on issues like how worship services function that is designed to foster a more active membership outside the U.S., Bowman says. In 2000, 75 percent of Utah residents were Mormon, but today, only 51 percent are. During the same time period, the church also restructured the organization of its highest-ranking priesthood. As far as Christian titles that explained LDS beliefs while contrasting these with biblical Christianity, the list of offerings available before 1990 included: It must be remembered that there were no online retailers like Amazon or Christian Books before 1990. But the churchs membership growth, which is public information, has slowed enough that it is basically flat, though this past year it did slightly reverse the downward trajectory and is back up to about 1.5% growth around the world, and 0.6% growth within the U.S. Maybe we could make a case for never been stronger if we compare todays church to the debacles that our denominational neighbors are experiencing right now. Over the first weekend of April, LDS Church leaders announced their lowest baptismal convert rate number in many decades due to COVID-19 sidelining thousands of its missionaries. SALT LAKE CITY Members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints are questioning a letter that was sent to leaders last week reminding them of a policy that prevents them from. (Rick Egan | The Salt Lake Tribune) Women's session of General Conference in April 2022. In a lot of other traditions, the children tend to move toward a middle range of religiousness, Smith says. For instance, we had to find the name of a person with a certain phone number and write down the zip code of an address in Minnesota. So there has to be this dynamic tension.. Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. For people who have left recently, there is a built-in community waiting to receive them, and thats just not the case for people who left decades ago, Riess says. From 1990-96, there were more than 6 converts for every missionary on the field. How big is the LDS Church? Based on recent history, will the church even get close to these numbers? People are waking up to problematic aspects of Christian origins. Church acted from fear of same-sex marriage and its own savings account. However, the rate of growth in 2019 was only 1.5%, which is a lower percentage than in 2003 because more than 4.5 million additional members had joined the church during that decade and a half. And few public libraries would have had a large array of materials on a singular subject of critical books on Mormonism. A few months later, the church also announced that it would do away with its standardized hymnbook in favor of regional hymnals designed to reflect local languages and musical customs. Theyre somewhat religious; they somewhat believe. It's pretty clear you didn't actually read your source. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc. Latter-day Saints in the Democratic Republic of Congo at their temple in the capital of Kinshasa. (The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints) Larger societal trends play a key role in this dynamic, but so too does the number of young members who leave the church before their childbearing years due, experts believe, to the demanding nature of church culture. For the nation overall, we see similar trends: The percentage of church members grew more substantially during the 1980s, 90s and early 2000s before turning a bit flat in the 2010s. But the bigger factor affecting growth, according to Martinich, is falling birthrates. To me, the history, identity, structure and doctrine of the LDS Church lends itself to a love it or leave it approach, Smith says. Find free ideas on how to get . The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". Watch on. While the church enjoyed small gains in membership growth the past two years globally (up 0.8%) and nationally (up 0.6%) amid a worldwide pandemic, more than 40% of U.S. states (21 plus the District of Columbia) saw their numbers decrease during that time frame. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The Internet was in its infancy during the first half of the 1990s. With many members leaving the church as well, this is the first time in modern history that the membership gains did not grow by six figures, as the church grew in 2020 by a total of only 98,627. So what are the overall trends for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints? When Church Is Hard It can be easy to feel overwhelmed by membership in the Church. These factors resulted in the underutilization of this impressive army. Most boil down to broken trust. Utah did have the largest percentage of any state who went to church at least once per week, at 52% of the overall population. The Salt Lake City mission baptized around 300 converts a month. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". Many of them would give their right arm for any kind of growth, even 1%. What has changed for Mormonism, she says, is that leaving has become easier, and those who defect have become more vocal. But over the last 25 years, growth rates have declined significantly, particularly in countries where Mormonism has historically seen the greatest success: the United States, Mexico, the Philippines, and others, according to Matt Martinich, who studies LDS membership and growth trends at the Cumorah Foundation. Then theres the churchs history of persecution, which Smith said has led to a heel-digging mindset in which individuals are either with the church, or against it. (Personal email to me, 2/17/2021). To go from 59,000 bodies in 2012 to 83,000 in 2013 (85,000 in 2014) must have caused a staffing nightmare since there were must not have been enough places to put these extra missionaries. That didnt work. Where, they want to know, did they go wrong? The LDS Church and its support of a marriage bill, Projected Church Membership at the end of that decade (millions), total stakes/missions/districts/wards and branches, the total membership number (as of that year), new children of record and baptized converts, missionary totals, both full-time as well as church-service, temples that were dedicated or rededicated along with the total temples in operation. Here are some factors that should be considered: One can only imagine how many of the 126,000 convert baptisms in 2020 were performed on those baptized after 8 but before the age of 17. I remember having a library assignment given to me in my college journalism class in 1984. Online communities and even conventions for individuals who identify as ex-Mormon have sprung up and gained followings through social media such as Facebook and Reddit, giving those who leave an instant connectionand platformthat simply didnt exist in the past. While it may seem that reconsidering its stance on social issues is one method to retain more young people, Mason and other scholars say this probably isnt the answer. It was in 2015 when the church leadership excluded children of same-sex couples to get baptized until they turned 18. For instance, there were 243,000 converts in 2003, which computes to close to 12 million members that year and a 2.03% rate of growth. If people leave this Church, they will usually end up traveling down one of two paths either they will become a church unto themselves (because they will never find another church that has more truth than they already have) or . Though growth may have declined in recent years, congregational retention is on the rise. Salt Lake Tribune columnist Gordon Monson has some advice for members who feel unworthy, stating that sometimes the only cleanse you need is eliminating the feeling like you should do one.. Its unrealistic to expect that there has been a major turnaround in the churchs fortunes in the years since 2008 since religious inactivity has become more pronounced in the intervening years, and not just in this country. California (down 2.84%), North Dakota (off 2.28%) and Washington (minus 2.03%) were the biggest percentage losers between the start of 2020 and the end of 2021, independent demographer Matt Martinich reports at ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com, while New Jersey (down 0.03%), Louisiana (off 0.13%) and Nebraska (minus 0.17%) had the tiniest declines. This translates into an anemic 0.6% growth rate to a total of 16.6 million, down from a less-than-impressive 1.54% growth rate from the previous year. You see those 8% annualized growth numbers between 1983 and 1987, and, I have to be honest, its a little suspicious from a data-integrity point of view: Its such an outlier over the years that come later. "The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints pays all taxes that are required by law," says an LDS Church statement about its tax status. And right now, the fastest-growing religion in America is no religion.. Evan Lloyd, a 41-year-old lawyer in Arizona who left the Church last year, speculates that most Mormons don't even know the Gospel Topics Essays exist. Note that I didnt say staying active in the church. Those numbers are lower. Historically, Riess says, American youth left the LDS church of their childhood between 17-23, only to return later in life when they married and began to have children of their own. The leaders spoke of declining temple marriages abroad and a few other problems. New Jersey, Idaho and North Dakota were the three biggest losers when compared to population change, while South Dakota, Washington, D.C., and Arkansas saw Latter-day Saints become a larger share of their communities. If the church ends up remaining at an average 1.5% convert baptism growth rate in the next five years, 18 million members wont be reached until 2024 at the earliest. The following chart shows the average number of converts per full-time missionary between 1990-2019: Of course, this is not to insinuate that every convert is a result of the work of a full-time missionary. Among those who leave, a growing number affiliate with an ex-Mormon community that regards the church not only as false, but as actively harmful to society, making the LDS Church an organization both uniquely loved, and hated, by those brought up in it. For a related article, see Book Review: The Next Mormons: How Millennials are Changing the LDS Church. That is, when the church opens a new local unit, its less likely to close within a few years, as was the trend, particularly in Latin America, in the past. I know, therefore, that the practice of counting 9 and 10 year olds as converts goes back at least as far as 1969. The excellent new book Back-Pocket God: Religion and Spirituality in the Lives of Emerging Adultsgives some additional context for this. Between 2000-2009, the church grew by 24.8% in the decade, with 200,000 fewer baptized converts (2.756 million) than the previous decade. One thing that I dont find helpful, though, is the inclusion of a 5-year-old quote from an LDS apostle who seems to be denying that there is anything like a retention problem in the church: Some have asserted that more members are leaving the Church today and that there is more doubt and unbelief than in the past. According to the church, it has over 16.8 million members and 54,539 full-time volunteer missionaries. Historically, two-thirds to three-fourths of children born into the church would remain active into adulthood. I figured we also might be able to make some interesting charts of that data as well. It took 117 years until 1947 for the Church to grow from the initial six members to one million. Using that as our guide, lets see where the church would be in 2080. Two of my convert baptisms were children that were 9 and 10 years old at the time of their baptisms. Im sure to this day that missionaries in heavily populated LDS areas baptize children over eight, fluffing the convert baptisms for the church. Mormon dominance in Utah is also down. Focusing on the percentage of convert baptisms, here is a visual look at these numbers: Considerations in understanding the growth rate of the LDS Church, It wasnt many years ago when the church appeared to be on pace to become a religion of triple-digit millions in the upcoming year. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The Salt Lake Tribune, Inc. is a 501(c)(3) public charity and contributions are tax For one, this influx caused the missionary leaders to scramble to find places for the enlarged cavalry. The information includes: The church accounting firm is the only entity with the information on how the final membership number is derived. Only a fraction of members reported by the LDS Church, he says, have set foot in a church recently or consider themselves Mormon.. Connect Your Family at FamilySearch Centers. If the categories are extremely religious, very religious and none, they move toward the middle category. This has been one of the main stories in the 21st century and may be accelerating over the past decade. (Salt Lake Tribune, Religion, A6, 1/16/21). Meanwhile, the share of Hispanics who say they are religiously unaffiliated is now 23%, up from 15% in 2009. The Idaho Statesman tapping a national database from the Truth & Transparency Foundation and published in The Salt Lake Tribune found that the Utah-based faith owns nearly 60,000 acres in Idaho worth at least $128 million. The LDS youth who stay in the church, Smith says, are far more devoted to the faith than young members of other traditions. But the more stagnant growth and even declines seen in 2021 in the U.S. and a significant number of states do continue a trend weve seen even before COVID-19 took hold, in the latter part of the 2010s. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is growing in the U.S., but that growth has flattened. It wasnt until my mission in the early 90s that I learned that I was identified as a convert. The Pocatello Idaho Temple, one of six existing Latter-day Saints temples in Idaho. The church leaders are not honest with their fellow men. Its a demanding, almost all-encompassing, way of life. Since 2008, the rate of growth has remained steadfast under 2%, with nothing higher than a 1.51% rate since 2016. Information on Joseph Smiths polygamous ways, the unique translation methods of LDS unique scripture, and other controversial material became readily available on the churchs very own website; visiting anti-Mormon sites to find this information wasnt even necessary! We know that, not just because of the three nationally representative studies Ive mentioned here (Pew, GSS, NSYR), but because of the churchs own internal data. However, about half were 9 to 17-year-olds. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has never been stronger. The next year, the missionary force went up by 40%! There is, however, a flip side to this trend: a sizeable and growing portion of young Mormons are leaving the mainline church. In truth, this Church ruins its members for any other church, because, like this missionary, they know too much. If this type of growth had continued, then yes, Starks prediction would be right in line. Its no secret that the population of some states declined during the pandemic most notably California, which lost about 300,000 residents between 2021 and 2022. Because Mormonism had a greater effect on their lives, theyre more likely to feel as though something has been taken from them. And some of the most secular, western nations, including the U.S., are seeing the greatest growth in new congregations. Is controversy driving members away from the church? However, there are some things that a sociologist like Stark could not have been able to predict unless he had a crystal ball, which we will discuss in a moment. Big news came for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in recent days when federal regulators slapped the Utah-based faith and its investment arm with a $5 million fine for working to . Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. Maybe at some point in the next half-century well be broadcasting General Conference from Accra [Ghanas capital], he wrote in a Times and Seasons blog post. 14,644 likes. If youre inactive, there is a list and people are told you need to be activated.. Congregational leaders were also directed to delegate more responsibilities to other volunteer leaders to allow the ward bishop essentially the priest or pastor of an LDS Wardto spend more time with local youth. Though the three studies employ different methodologies, they all paint a consistent picture of about 6 in 10 young adults who were raised in the church keeping a Mormon identity as adults. In the end, 55% of the Utahns they spoke to identified themselves as Latter-day Saints, while between 64% and 68% of Utahs population were on the churchs official rolls during that time period, according to their reports. The answer is no, not even close. One key friendship united two famous singing troupes the St. Olaf Choir and The Tabernacle Choir at Temple Square. Instead, leaders provide a list of numbers each April from the previous year. Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features. (The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints) However, things slowed down tremendously as the church entered the 21st century. If the church continues to boom in parts of Africa at the current rate a big if, of course when might it boast more Latter-day Saint congregations than North America? The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints was formally organized in a small log cabin in upstate New York in 1830. Before the 2021 report, the highest number of states with a membership decrease came in 2018, when 12 states saw a decline. Donate to the newsroom now. Mormons have developed a strong sense of community that stems from their doctrine and history. Most people who join the LDS Church are introduced to the faith by Mormon missionaries. My companion and I received credit for two convert baptisms when we baptized them. They lose their membership and cannot participate in any way other than attend meetings. The LDS Church does not document how many people leave the church in any given year. Internet sites on Mormonism abound, including Christian sites mrm.org, carm.org, and utlm.org. 1 factor in transmitting religious faith in an enduring way. President @camillenjohnson_ and President @bonniehcordon are greeted by local Church leaders in Nairobi, Kenya, as they minister in Africa. Like. 1548: Is the Mormon Church in Decline? A former investment manager alleges in a whistleblower complaint to the Internal Revenue Service that the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has amassed about $100 billion in accounts. This too is the lowest number in recent years. By the 2016 The Next Mormons survey, 57% of LDS families had fewer than three children too few to maintain the churchs membership per historical data, Martinich notes. California (down 2.84%), North Dakota (off 2.28%) and Washington (minus 2.03%) were the biggest percentage losers between the start of 2020 and the end of 2021, independent demographer Matt. While other theologically conservative and liberal churches alike have seen an increase in disaffected members leaving their ranks, the Church has maintained its membership: "One-quarter of Americans are religiously unaffiliated today, a roughly fourfold increase from a couple of decades earlier. The Mormon Church is growing at an astounding rate in just about every metric available. A less rosy picture emerges from the General Social Survey, which has . Will the falling numbers cause a compromise in these hot-button topics? Obviously, the pandemic played a role in these numbers, both in the movement of people between states and the skipped reporting of 2020. "It's not the doctrine and it's not the brethren at all," Doty . The churchs total parcels in Idaho rank third among the states, behind only Utah and California, and its 58,000-plus acres rank eighth. Worldwide Devotional with Elder and Sister Holland. Some who tried to leave by way of quiet inactivity find its hard to get the church to leave them alone, Sorensen says. The church continues to count this person as a member until they would have reached the age of 110, an obvious attempt to artificially inflate numbers. And we continue to lose what were stalwart members - some to leaving the church, others return to the Mormon Corridor - Utah/Idaho/Arizona.