Beijings moves have prompted Washington to counter Chinese assertiveness by forging a new strategic alignment in the regionone in which China dominates the South China Sea from the north, the United States and its partners do so from the east and west, and the states of continental Southeast Asia remain neutral or lean toward Beijing in the intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition. Dispersed American forces would act as countermeasure and would complicate defense planning for the Chinese military and political calculations for Beijing, while ensuring U.S. forces are positioned to support each other in the event of a crisis. Thus, it is said that the South China Sea could be the battleground of World War III. Australia and Vietnam established a Comprehensive Partnership in 2009 and agreed to expand it in 2015. But the South China Sea has been dangerously overfished. Douglas R. Bush, Deterring a Cross-Strait Conflict: Beijing's Assessment of Evolving U.S. Strategy, Rethinking Humanitarian Aid: A Conversation with Michelle Nunn, President and CEO of CARE USA, The South China Sea Some Fundamental Strategic Principles, Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, Diversity and Leadership in International Affairs Project, Energy Security and Climate Change Program. In practice, Thailand may be neutral in the regions great power fissures into the next decade. This access will allow for more frequent, more sustained flights over the South China Sea, including over the disputed Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal. European access to Asia will be through Beijing. You are approaching Chinese airspace. A third of the world's shipping passes through it, its fisheries are critical sources of food for millions of people. The United States needs to maintain a difficult balancing act, supporting the democratic aspirations of the Thai people while remaining a security and economic partner of choice for the elites and armed forces. In December, another joint China-Russia naval exercise was held in the East China Sea (China Military Online, December 21, 2022). In 1974, Chinese gunboats attacked and defeated a small South Vietnamese military outpost in the Paracels an archipelago of reefs, atolls, and islets in the South China Sea. World. "First, South China Sea is important for the strategic patrol of Chinese SSBN [nuclear ballistic missile submarine], which needs to enter west Pacific Ocean for its nuclear deterrence against the US," he explained. It is unlikely that any states in the region possess the wealth and power to oppose this, although there is always a realistic possibility that they may receive backing from the USA if it is in their interests. The Chinese recently built an island in the South China Sea, apparently as a potential airbase. There are certainly other situations involving other challenges, but this is the most plausible and dangerous. Yet, due to Turkey's strategic importance, the US cannot afford to affront Mr. Erdogan, who carries a peculiar . The Korean War produced formal defense treaties with each of these countries plus a new, permanent military presence in South Korea. Vietnam already flies modern Russian fighter jets and is expecting delivery this year of its sixth and final Kilo-class submarinesubmarines so quiet that the U.S. Navy refers to them as black holes. If the Chinese Navy wants to have its way in the South China Sea, it will have to dedicate resources to tracking those subs, a task with which the PLAN has limited experience. In the contemporary era, Taiwan remains geographically at the intersection of most of East Asia's danger points. The end of the Cold War found East Asia and the Western Pacific strategically quiescent. Vietnam's coastline bordering the South China Sea is over 3,000 kilometers long. Geopolitical platform, analysis of political, military, security, economic, social events with international and geopolitics relevance. Leung, The Consequences of Conquest: Why Indo-Pacific Power Hinges on Taiwan, United States vs China: from Partnership to Antagonism - Interview with Alfredo Toro Hardy, How the Ukraine War changes Global Geopolitics, What The Economist omits to address in President Xi's vision of a global security order, Armenia: Trapped in Between Interview with Gayane Novikova, How Chinas COVID Policy Reversal Impacts Globally: an interview with Neeraj Singh Manha, Marcos-Xi Durian Diplomacy Climbs to Higher Gear, Is the EU Really Willing to Enlarge in the Western Balkans? The United States sent a carrier battle group there as well. Finally, the United States should prioritize governance issues in its relations with Southeast Asian states. The 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea is an international treaty that sets out importantmaritime rules. That redundancy will grant the United States flexibility in a couple of ways. It has also been known to give its fishermen military training for years, but recently this has been reported as more assertive with fishermen helping to underwrite and enforce sovereignty claims by occupying territory at sea, carrying out surveillance and harassing other vessels under the guise of civilian fishing boats. 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China's strategic reach into the South China Sea has obvious and profound implications for three sets of international actors: (1) the littoral Southeast Asian states (Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and the Philippines); (2) major maritime countries heavily dependent on the sea lanes through the South China Sea (including Japan, Korea, and It has deep ties with the military, which still dominates key parts of the government, and is a major player in the economy. As a result of this shift, China now seeks to control sea lines of communication, ensure national prosperity and continue economic growth and national greatness; the South China Sea plays a massive part in this. A South China Sea Strategy By Dan Blumenthal, Michael Auslin, and Michael Mazza I. Beware China: America Fights Back In recent years, China's inventive engineering feats have allowed it to. The United States should intensify capacity building efforts with allies and partners to improve their ability to resist Chinese coercion. But the South China Sea has been dangerously overfished. Utapao has been suggested as a permanent Southeast Asian Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) hub. The SCS is passage of half of the world trade. Successful capacity building efforts will allow Southeast Asian states to better help themselves, bolstering deterrence against low-level Chinese coercion and allowing the U.S. military to focus more on deterring high-level contingencies. As the pivot of global economy continues to move east it is highly likely that 21st century geopolitics will continue to revolve around Asia and the SCS. Chinas claims over the legal status and maritime rights of the 9 dash line remain ambiguous and outside of UN recognised EEZ claims. Today's world is the US-led where China is a rising giant economically and politically. China has adopted an increasingly assertive posture towards its own claims by elevating it to a core interest, strengthening its fishery law enforcement and building civilian and military facilities in the disputed islands and waters. The United States has leverage over China in areas not directly related to South China Sea and may have to consider using or threatening to use these tools to stabilize the regional order. 2013 The Philippines challenges Chinas claims of historic rights and other actions in an arbitration case under the Law of the Sea Convention. Firstly, the South China Sea is a prominent shipping passage with $5.3 trillion worth of . Final Thoughts & Looking Towards the Future. This puts more pressure on Washington to intervene and U.S. allies and partners in Asia are watching carefully and drawing conclusions about U.S. commitment and staying power in the region. Total fish stocks have been depleted by 70 to 95 percent since the 1950s. The Obama administrations decision to lift the decades-old arms embargo on Vietnam is instrumental here. Recent satellite analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies shows that Chinese fishing fleets are engaged in paramilitary work on behalf of the state rather than the commercial enterprise of fishing, the organization reported. Talks are focused on articles that are relevant to disaster relief, but the agreements eventual parameters could expand as the U.S.-Vietnam security relationship matures. The United States now has the opportunity to secure for another generation the peace that has held in Asia for nearly four decades now. the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States." Chinese control of the SCS-and, more generally, Chinese domination of China's near-seas region, meaning the SCS, the East China Sea (ECS), and the Yellow Sea-could substantially aect U.S. strategic, political, and economic interests in the Indo-Pacic region and . The credibility of U.S. security support for allies and partners will be shredded. In order to understand the contention of the South China Sea and its significance, it is firstly imperative to understand the geopolitical importance of Asia, which has given rise to Chinese pre-eminence; enabling its rise to contemporary major political power on the global stage. If China succeeds, in displacing U.S. power in the Western Pacific and Chinese territorial expansion into the South China Sea becomes permanent and codified, global geopolitics will have entered a new and very different era. The strategic importance of the SCS is mainly due to its geographical location, as the area is one of the world's busiest and most strategic shipping lanes. The three core areas that must be defended and secured are the Malay Peninsula, Sabah and Sarawak. With a maturing coast guard, navy and air force, Vietnam will become an increasingly prickly foe. It is highly likely that China will continue to upset regional stability in the SCS to expand its own sphere of influence. Follow the Asia Program on Twitter @AsiaProgram. In addition to far flung island territories (formerly occupied by Japan) in the South Pacific, the United States had a substantial military garrison in Japan and close ties with South Korea and the Philippines a former colony. If this sounds overstated or overwrought it is not. China is already providing indications of how it might act when it controls the South China Sea. What is the Strategic Importance of the South China Sea? Certainly, the ongoing reform process and the opening of relations with the United States amount to a strategic setback for Chinas position in the region. There were, however, cautionary signs for those prepared to see them. The largest and most powerful of these . Should those ties continue to expand, moreover, the United States may find that it has greater flexibility in dealing with a vexing regional ally: Thailand. The United States should continue to prioritize military presence in the Asia-Pacific at the same time as it invests in key capabilities, such as long-range precision strike, undersea warfare, cyber/space systems, and other capabilities that will preserve the U.S. ability to deter Chinese aggression. The U.S. military used Utapao for refueling efforts during operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s, as well as for multinational relief efforts after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and April 2015 Nepal earthquake., The U.S.-Thai alliance has also served as a platform for important training exercises. Most of China's global trade is seaborne. Historically, Taiwan's pivotal location off the China coast and between Northeast and Southeast Asia has served a variety of strategic purposes for regional powers, both offensive and defensive. by Geoffrey Hartman Instead, perceptions of weakness may encourage leaders in Beijing to embrace more assertive behavior. The U.S. militarys enhanced ability to loiter in and over the South China Sea, moreover, will facilitate more effective efforts to track Chinese submarines sailing from the PLANs underground naval base on Hainan island. Back in 2006, Japan became only the second country (after Russia) to establish a strategic partnership with Vietnam. Learn more in our Cookie Policy. At the economic front, it is estimated that an annual global trade of $5.3 trillion passes through the SCS. Second, the United States should feel comfortable adopting a patient approach in pushing a return to full democracy in Thailand. The area marked with a blue line is based on the UNCLOS 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) relating to each countrys claims and the islands marked in green are the ones over which sovereignty is disputed.
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