A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. Election night is going to be information overload. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? So, where are the bellwether counties? 2023 BBC. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. Twitter Twitter Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. 108,000 people. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. 2. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. But both are worth watching. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. These counties could play an . Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. Telegram Telegram There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. Outstanding. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! It is easy to gloss over this. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. 2020 Election (1210) First, what are bellwether counties? Free and open-source. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Not anymore. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. But it's still indicative of widespread support. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas.
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